Conviction Board
The standing calls, ranked by score and grouped by horizon. This is the publish gate's whitelisted view — no score internals, no source references, no price levels beyond each call's own invalidation line. What you don't see is the point.
Action reads direction / size. Direction is what the
call says to do — buy (add), hold (keep as-is), trim
(reduce), exit (close out), avoid (stay out). Size is the
position weight — small, medium or large; a watch-only
call with nothing to size shows the direction alone.
Score is a 0–100 evidence-strength rank.
▲/▼ mark
its move vs last week's board; · is flat,
no mark means a new or under-a-week-old call.
Position
months| Coin | Action | Score | Conf. | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | avoid | 97· | med | CC and BL's four-year cycle framework still points to a deeper BTC low into October 2026; DCC dissents, arguing a bottom may already be in. Invalidation · A weekly close back above the 50-week SMA (about $81,546) would break the four-year bear case and invalidate this avoid stance. CCBLDCC |
| AERO | hold | 94▼ | med | Coinbase-backed AERO is holding its 20-week MA, gaining real revenue traction, with room to re-rate on its coming Ethereum L1 launch. Invalidation · Invalidated by a weekly close below $0.45 (old resistance-turned-support) or BTC breaking below its $48K July-low structure. CCDCC |
| ZEC | hold | 94▲ | med | ZEC has run ~40x and already hit its ~$900 wave-5 target; the freshest read says buy dips here, not chase the breakout. Invalidation · A weekly close back below $500 would round-trip the summer breakout and break the dip-buy thesis. CCDCC |
| SOL | hold / small | 83· | low | No fresh price call this quarter; SOL holds its seat on structural placement and a sub-$100 DCA zone. Invalidation · A weekly close below $50 breaks DCC's stated floor and removes the only price level SOL has. DCCCC |
Hold
full cycle| Coin | Action | Score | Conf. | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | buy / small | 92▲ | med | All four covered channels expect Bitcoin to resume its multi-year uptrend once this cycle's low completes, despite timing disagreement. Invalidation · The 4-year cycle structure breaks if a new low undercuts the prior cycle's low, or the next cycle fails to top October 2025's peak. CCDCCBL |
| ETH | hold / medium | 92▲ | med | Multi-year ETH hold: treasury-company and Wall-Street adoption should carry ETH past its $4,800 ATH, with even a BTC-maxi now seeing its low in first. Invalidation · The Wall-Street adoption thesis breaks: ETH fails to reclaim its $4,800 prior ATH this cycle, or treasury-company accumulation reverses. DCCCC |
| AERO | hold / small | 72· | low | Multi-year bet that a Coinbase-backed, revenue-generating DeFi protocol takes durable share from Uniswap. Invalidation · A monthly close below $0.20 - DCC's own floor - says the protocol thesis failed rather than merely lagged. CCDCC |
| ZEC | hold / medium | 70▼ | med | ZEC's capped, audited supply and shielded-pool privacy tech make it a multi-year core hold across cycles, not a cycle trade. Invalidation · Thesis breaks if Zcash's supply cap is violated (undisclosed token printing) or major exchanges delist ZEC under privacy-coin regulation. CCDCC |
| XLM | hold | 55· | med | XLM holds a 13-20c base with DTCC/RWA framed as 2027 fuel, but a 'gives back gains' pattern risks Oct-Nov capitulation to ~10c first. Invalidation · Invalidation is the DTCC/RWA settlement path failing to materialize, or XLM structurally breaking the ~$0.10-0.13 long base. CCDCC |
| DOGE | avoid | 54▼ | low | DOGE demoted behind PEPE this cycle per CC; the long-term DCA case survives only if it avoids fumbling again - not a name to add now. Invalidation · A confirmed reclaim of DOGE's prior cycle high (~$0.47) while it keeps pace with PEPE would invalidate this cautious read. CC |
Not financial advice — a research synthesis of public streams. Every conviction carries its own invalidation; verify against the source episodes before acting on anything here.